Investors are starting to find opportunities in the battered bond market — SkimNews
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- 10-year note flirted with the psychologically important 5% level Friday as oil prices surged and a fresh consumer survey showed inflation expectations remained well above the Federal Reserve's 2% goal.
- Michael Hartnett declared “The Price is Right” on Treasurys and advocated adding bonds, citing their worst long-run return in the past 100 years.
- Treasurys received $5.4 billion in inflows over the past week, part of $12.1 billion flowing into the overall bond market, according to BofA data.
- iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF received $1.14 billion in fresh investor cash over the past month; the fund offering long-duration government-debt exposure totals $47.3 billion.
- Nicholas Colas calculated Thursday's 19-basis-point drop in the 10-year yield was a three-standard-deviation move and said the catalyst was not a sudden change in the market's view on the U.S. economy.
- DataTrek Research said the Treasury market was interpreting AI-related capital-expenditure funding angst as a sign incremental issuance would slow, leaving Treasurys with less competition for capital.
- Oil-price fears sent stocks and bonds lower together Friday, diverging from their usual inverse relationship; Colas said history suggests that relationship will return and a stock-and-bond mix remains reasonable.
Why it matters: Bond investors are putting fresh money behind the stabilization thesis: $5.4 billion flowed into Treasurys last week and $1.14 billion into the long-duration ETF over the past month. Colas tied reduced competition for capital to a slowdown in incremental issuance, while Hartnett treats the sell-off as a long-term entry point.
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