OpenAI Files IPO, Odds Jump to 83% vs Anthropic
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- OpenAI plans to confidentially file an IPO as early as this Friday, aiming for a September listing, according to WSJ and confirmed by CNBC.
- Prediction‑market traders on Kalshi now assign OpenAI an 83% probability of going public before Anthropic, up from 32% before the filing news.
- Anthropic’s odds of beating OpenAI to an IPO fell to 20% on Polymarket, down from 69% after OpenAI’s filing announcement.
- OpenAI faces investor concerns over high spending, missed revenue targets, and leadership turnover, with CEO Sam Altman reportedly pushing for a faster IPO than CFO Sarah Friar.
- OpenAI recently won a lawsuit against Elon Musk, which, combined with the IPO filing, is seen as a “two‑punch” to improve its market perception.
Why it matters: Investors in OpenAI stand to benefit from a valuation boost as the IPO filing lifts its odds to 83%, while Anthropic's odds falling to 20% dampens its $900bn funding round prospects.
