Here's how SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 inclusion might affect options pricing
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- SpaceX options traded about 500,000 contracts by midday Monday—making it the fifth-most popular stock for options—with over 300,000 calls versus fewer than 130,000 puts, per ThinkOrSwim data.
- SpaceX is set to garner a roughly 1% weighting in the Nasdaq 100 upon accelerated inclusion, adding Elon Musk's latest trillion-dollar company to the roughly $500-billion Invesco QQQ fund.
- SpaceX implied volatility sits at 92, nearly 3.5 times QQQ's level and among the most volatile ratios QQQ has seen against the S&P 500 in almost 20 years.
- All 10 of Monday's top SpaceX options contracts by volume were calls; the most-popular was the $450-strike July 17 call—a 15-cent contract requiring an 180% rally by next week to break even.
- Shares slipped below $160 on Monday following a Thursday bounce and an 8% sell-off the prior Wednesday.
- Nasdaq rules cap the weight of low-float stocks, meaning SpaceX's outsized swings should only marginally boost the index's overnight volatility despite the dramatic implied volatility reading.
Why it matters: Long-term index holders flowing into QQQ should theoretically dampen SpaceX's 92 implied volatility as buy-and-hold investors absorb shares—but those same holders may buy puts to hedge, while high premiums attract call-sellers seeking income. If that hedging-and-income dynamic dominates, the 5:1 call bias masks persistent two-way options demand, keeping SpaceX swingy even as long-only capital arrives.
