Ukraine's steep obstacles to wartime elections
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Mykhailo Fedorov called for wartime elections in a Tuesday address citing a governance crisis; his abrupt dismissal by Zelensky last month after just six months as defence minister sparked rare wartime street protests.
- Ukraine has been under martial law since February 2022, which bans elections for security reasons, and the country last held a vote in 2019; Zelensky has said he is prepared to hold elections if allies guarantee vote security.
- Russia pounds Ukrainian cities with hundreds of drones and missiles while fighting rages along more than 1,200 km of front lines, and Russian attacks on energy infrastructure have disrupted electricity supplies — conditions analyst Volodymyr Fesenko says require an air ceasefire as a first step.
- Ukraine's displaced voters present massive logistical hurdles: over 4.4 million hold EU temporary protection status, nearly 4 million are internally displaced, 1 million serve in the armed forces, and an estimated 4.5 million adults remain in Russian-occupied territory.
- Zelensky's approval has fallen from about 90% early in the war to roughly 60%, though he remains a frontrunner; polls show former commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi at 21% and Fedorov at 13%, with either capable of beating Zelensky in a second-round runoff.
- Russia plans to hold its own elections in occupied Ukrainian territory next month, which Ukraine calls illegal, while Moscow simultaneously argues Zelensky is illegitimate because his term expired in May 2024.
- Donald Trump has pushed for Ukrainian elections, telling Politico in December it was time for a vote, adding external pressure on Zelensky's government from Washington.
Why it matters: The election question is now a direct challenge to Zelensky's authority as Russia's negotiating counterpart — Moscow already cites his expired May 2024 term to reject peace deals he signs, and Ukraine calls Russia's parallel vote in occupied territory illegal. With Fedorov, a 35-year-old reformer ousted last month, polling at 13% and able to beat Zelensky in a runoff, the wartime election debate is also a proxy fight over Ukraine's post-war political direction.
Ask SkimNews
