India Walks Tightrope on China, U.S. Trade Policy
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- India's Finance Ministry rejected 41.5% of anti-dumping duty recommendations in 2025-26 through December 31, a dramatic reversal from the 0.5% rejection rate between 1991 and 2020
- Cases involving China accounted for 72% of all anti-dumping duty rejections since 2000, according to Centre for Digital Economy Policy data
- India's imports from China have shifted from finished goods toward intermediate goods—electronic components grew from 3.3% (Q1 2015-16) to ~13% (Q1 2026-27), while telecom instruments fell from ~18% to ~11% over the same period
- In March 2026, India's Cabinet approved FDI from companies with up to 10% Chinese ownership through the automatic route, followed by a July order letting four Chinese-linked firms bid on power sector projects
- On July 23, India allowed FDI in e-commerce companies that hold inventory for export purposes—a decade-old restriction Amazon has long lobbied to relax
- After India notified a ban on imports made with forced labor, the U.S. imposed a final 10% tariff instead of the 12.5% it had proposed
- Ashwani Mahajan, National Co-Convener of the RSS-affiliated Swadeshi Jagaran Manch, called the rejection phenomenon "unfortunate" and accused government advisers of a misguided "protectionist mindset"
Why it matters: Indian domestic industry loses its anti-dumping shield against Chinese imports just as India formally opens its doors to Chinese-linked FDI—a trade-off the RSS-aligned Swadeshi Jagaran Manch is publicly attacking. Meanwhile, Amazon and other e-commerce players gain a foothold India blocked for a decade, and India escaped a steeper 12.5% U.S. tariff by capitulating on forced-labor import rules.
