Zealand Pharma Stock Crashes on Survodutide Dropout
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- Zealand Pharma shares plunged 23% after survodutide data showed a 19% patient dropout rate and a placebo-adjusted discontinuation rate of 18.8% versus roughly 4% for Wegovy and Zepbound.
- Zealand Pharma stock had already dropped 36% in March on petrelintide mid-stage efficacy of just under 11% — its two worst trading days since the 2010 IPO — leaving shares down 38% year-to-date.
- UBS slashed its price target to 540 Danish kroner from 730 and cut survodutide peak sales forecasts by nearly 80%, yet maintained a Buy rating anchored to petrelintide as "the most important asset."
- Petrelintide, Zealand's amylin-based drug co-developed with Roche, is set to enter late-stage trials in the second half of the year, with mid-stage diabetes data also expected.
- Eli Lilly unveiled retatrutide data at the same ADA conference — described by RBC analysts as potentially the most efficacious obesity therapy in development, with no efficacy plateau through 104 weeks.
- Jyske Bank analyst Henrik Hallengreen Laustsen flagged survodutide's potential repurposing for fatty liver disease, while warning Zealand must articulate what differentiates petrelintide from rival amylin candidates.
- Jefferies and UBS both concluded Zealand's stock inflection point likely won't arrive until 2027.
Why it matters: With survodutide discontinuation rates nearly five times those of Wegovy and Zepbound, Zealand's commercial path now runs through petrelintide — a tolerability-focused amylin drug entering late-stage trials. But Eli Lilly's retatrutide data dropped at the same ADA conference, raising the competitive bar just as Zealand's backup plan takes the stage.
