What happens when war breaks out in the middle of a survey?
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- Pew Research Center was conducting its annual global survey in multiple countries when the US and Israel launched joint airstrikes against Iran on Feb. 28, giving researchers a rare chance to track opinion shifts over the following weeks of fieldwork.
- US favorability declined significantly during the survey period in Greece, India, Italy, Kenya, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Sweden, and Thailand — even after controlling for age, gender, education, and political ideology.
- Pakistan bucked the trend, with views of the US ticking up slightly; Pew notes fieldwork there began April 8, just days before Pakistan hosted the first round of US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad.
- South Korea's economic confidence fell sharply during the survey period, a pattern Pew links to the country's heavy dependence on energy shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, where prices spiked amid Iran-related disruptions.
- Spain and Germany showed no significant change in US favorability during fieldwork, since views there were already quite negative the prior year.
- Muslim-majority countries surveyed did not begin fieldwork until after Ramadan, meaning their opinions may not have shifted as much during the survey window; views of the US there were already quite negative to begin with.
- In about a third of all surveyed countries, views of the national economy worsened significantly during the field period, often moving in tandem with declining views of the US.
Why it matters: For the US, Pew's real-time data shows favorability eroding in eight surveyed countries — including key partners like South Korea, India, and Italy — while economic confidence in energy-vulnerable nations fell alongside the US image. The rare longitudinal view demonstrates that public opinion can shift within weeks of a military action, not just over years, compounding the diplomatic cost of the war faster than typical annual polling would reveal.
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