Saudi‑UAE Rift Undermines Quad Plan for Sudan War
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- Sudan' civil war has entered its fourth year with no end in sight, and the front line now runs along west‑central Kordofan without a decisive breakthrough.
- Sudanese army receives backing from Egypt, Eritrea, Turkiye, Qatar, Iran and Saudi Arabia, which recognize army chief Abdel Fattah al‑Burhan as Sudan’s head of state.
- Rapid Support Forces are principally patronised by the United Arab Emirates, which supplies financial, military and logistical support that enabled the RSF to sustain the 18‑month siege of el‑Fasher, after which atrocities were reported.
- Quad (United States, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt) proposed a roadmap to end the war on 12 September 2025, but subsequent Saudi‑UAE tensions have undermined the negotiations.
- Saudi Arabia publicly rebuked the UAE after the UAE‑backed Southern Transitional Council in Yemen launched an offensive near the Saudi border in December 2025, demanding a full UAE withdrawal.
- United States remains central to diplomatic efforts despite doubts about the Trump administration’s commitment, and the ongoing US‑Israel‑Iran conflict threatens to distract Gulf states from Sudan peace talks.
Why it matters: The Saudi‑UAE split could tip the balance toward the army, bolstering its external backers while keeping RSF aid flowing, and the US diplomatic effort loses leverage, raising the risk of a broader regional conflagration. Meanwhile, civilians bear the brunt as fighting continues in west‑central Kordofan and atrocities in el‑Fasher threaten further humanitarian disaster.
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