FactSet sees 8,338 S&P 500; Vanguard ETFs beat market
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- FactSet Research forecasts the S&P 500 will reach 8,338 within a year, a 28% upside from its current 6,506 level.
- Information technology sector is projected to climb to 7,215 in a year, a 39% upside from its present 5,203 level.
- Consumer discretionary sector is expected to rise to 2,244 in a year, a 30% upside from its current 1,725 level.
- Vanguard Information Technology ETF has returned 1,570% over the past two decades (15.1% annual), more than double the S&P 500’s 636% total return (10.5% annual), and carries a 0.09% expense ratio.
- Vanguard Consumer Discretionary ETF has added 731% over the past two decades (11.1% annual), beating the S&P 500’s total return, and also has a 0.09% expense ratio.
- Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warns that tariffs, a slowdown in GDP and jobs growth, and rising oil prices could push the economy into recession, which would likely cause technology and consumer discretionary stocks to fall more sharply than the broader S&P 500.
Why it matters: Investors gain exposure to historically high‑return, low‑cost ETFs that have outperformed the S&P 500, while facing concentration risk in a few mega‑caps and heightened vulnerability to a potential recession that could depress both technology and consumer discretionary stocks, limiting upside for risk‑averse portfolios.
