US Iran War Depletes Missiles, Gives China Taiwan Edge
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- United States shifted significant military assets from the Indo‑Pacific to the Middle East for the Iran campaign, including Patriot interceptors, THAAD tubes, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, two destroyers and two Marine expeditionary units.
- United States fired roughly 850–1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles in the Iran operation, depleting stocks that will take two to three years and $3.5 million each to replace.
- China’s military analysts (Zheng Yongnian, Niu Tanqin, Shi Yinhong) publicly praised the United States as “still number one” and noted the tactical success of the Iran campaign as a deterrent.
- Taiwan is accelerating its own missile defenses, aiming to field the world’s highest density of anti‑ship missiles by the end of 2026, while Japan is mass‑producing the Type 25 anti‑ship cruise missile for deployment in the Taiwan Strait.
- President Xi Jinping is currently purging roughly half of senior PLA commanders, disproportionately targeting the Rocket Force, which would be critical in a Taiwan invasion.
- Trump and Xi are slated to meet twice in 2026, with the United States delaying a large arms sale to Taiwan until after Trump’s first May meeting with Xi.
- Taiwan relies on over 95 % of its oil and LNG imports by sea, with strategic reserves of only 8–11 days for gas and 100 days for oil, highlighting a critical energy vulnerability exposed by the Iran conflict.
Why it matters: US depletion of Tomahawk stocks and redeployment of carrier groups reduces immediate strike capacity in the Indo‑Pacific, potentially easing Chinese calculations for a Taiwan assault, while Taiwan’s accelerated anti‑ship missile buildup and Japan’s new missiles bolster its defensive posture, shifting the regional balance of power.
