Russian drone campaign mapped Nato air defence gaps, study finds - Financial Times
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- IISS report documented 144 Russian-linked drone sorties into the airspace of more than a dozen NATO countries plus Ireland over 19 months, targeting airports, energy sites, military bases and nuclear installations.
- Russia likely used shadow-fleet commercial tankers as launch platforms, recovery locations or communications relays, with French forces boarding one suspected tanker in 2025 but never publicly disclosing the outcome, according to IISS report author Charlie Edwards.
- Individual European governments treated drone sightings as isolated national incidents and were often reluctant to publicly accuse Russia, meaning the coordinated pattern only became visible when incidents were examined collectively, the study found.
- High-profile incidents included 24 drones invading Polish airspace in September 2025 (some shot down by NATO), drones forcing Copenhagen Airport to close for several hours the same month, and Dutch fighter jets scrambled over Volkel Air Base in December 2025.
- The IISS identified four likely Russian objectives: surveillance of NATO's nuclear deterrent and dual-capable bases; testing allied response times via 'reconnaissance by battle'; mapping military logistics routes; and imposing economic and psychological costs.
- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied involvement, telling reporters: "What does this have to do with us?" — while Russia's wider strategy has separately exploited Europe's 'systemic fragility' through legacy tech and outdated legislation, per prior IISS research.
Why it matters: Nearly 150 incursions into critical infrastructure — including France's Île Longue nuclear submarine base and air bases in the UK, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands — went unanswered by any coordinated NATO response for 19 months, exposing a political and legal coordination gap that may matter more than the technical air defence shortcomings the report highlights.
