Netanyahu's Iran War Undermines 45-Year US Gulf Strategy
SkimNews Take
The US pursuit of regional stability and Israel's strategy of perpetually weakening adversaries are structurally incompatible — a successful Israeli campaign guarantees the very instability the Carter Doctrine was designed to prevent, meaning the alliance may now be working at cross-purposes.
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- The US-Israel-Iran war is in its second month, and the US and Israel have lost the strategic initiative despite early military successes, as Iran's government and military have shown unexpected resilience
- The 1980 Carter Doctrine, issued in response to the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the USSR's invasion of Afghanistan, underpins US Gulf strategy by declaring any attempt to control the Persian Gulf contrary to US interests — a risk the current war could trigger if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz
- Israel's 'mowing the grass' strategy is now being applied to Iran through assassinations of political and military leaders and destruction of political and civilian infrastructure, mirroring its campaign against Hamas and a new push into southern Lebanon to create a Hezbollah buffer zone
- Netanyahu's October 27 election is the key driver: defeating Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran would bolster his case for a presidential pardon and cancellation of his years-long corruption trial, while polling shows Likud's support collapsing on news of an impending ceasefire with Hamas
- US public support for Israel has dropped to its lowest level since 2004, with 65% of Democrats and 41% of independents now sympathizing with Palestinians — a critical vulnerability given Israel's dependence on the US$3.8 billion in annual US aid and unfettered access to American military hardware
- Netanyahu and senior ministers are under ICC investigation for genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity related to the Gaza war, risking further international isolation if adverse findings are issued
- Iran's survival of the onslaught has produced a younger, emboldened, and more hardline leadership, making a revitalized and more militant Axis of Resistance bent on revenge more likely
Why it matters: Netanyahu's political calculus — an October 27 election and a pending corruption trial — is driving continued escalation against Iran and Hezbollah, even as the campaign contradicts the US's 40-year-old Carter Doctrine and erodes the bipartisan support that underpins Israel's $3.8 billion in annual US military aid.
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