Iran may drag out the crisis to humiliate the US as it did in ’79
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- Iran has destroyed or damaged many US bases in the Persian Gulf and struck Israel with missile and drone attacks, gaining a stronger bargaining position despite US military superiority, per the analysis.
- Iran has gained control of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical oil and fertilizer chokepoint — which the article calls 'Iran's most potent lever of resistance and punishment'.
- Trump faces mounting pressure to end the three-month-old war he launched with Netanyahu, which the analysis says has triggered a global energy crisis and could hurt Republicans in US midterm elections later this year.
- Netanyahu opposes any US-Iran deal that does not reduce Iran to a 'feeble state' and advance his 'Greater Israel' goals ahead of Israeli general elections later this year, according to the piece.
- Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been elevated domestically as the key defender of the Islamic system, with previously anti-regime citizens rallying around the flag amid the war.
- Iran retains support from Russia and China and uses overland routes through neighbors and the Caspian Sea to access markets, reducing its isolation despite US sanctions.
- The article draws a direct parallel to Ayatollah Khomeini's 444-day hostage crisis (1979-81), which the author argues contributed to Jimmy Carter's 1980 election defeat — the remaining 52 hostages were released minutes after Reagan's inauguration in January 1981.
Why it matters: Trump's political calendar (midterms) and Netanyahu's electoral timeline both create incentives for a deal, but the analysis argues Iran's regime was architecturally designed for endurance and now wields the Strait of Hormuz as economic chokepoint leverage — the same structural advantage that let Khomeini outlast Carter in 1980.
