PBO trims Canadian economic forecasts amid U.S. tariffs, countermeasures — SkimNews

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- Parliamentary Budget Officer Annette Ryan released the Economic and Fiscal Outlook projecting federal deficits $3-billion higher per year over the next four years versus the PBO's June forecast
- Ryan said the federal debt is growing twice as fast as reported deficits because loans to Crown corporations and military capital purchases are recorded as assets under accrual accounting rather than expenses
- The PBO cited examples of Crown corporation-driven spending under Prime Minister Mark Carney, including Build Canada Homes, the Canada Strong Fund, and the proposed Canadian Corporation for Defence Investment
- Federal debt is projected to reach $1.67-trillion in 2030-31, up from $1.3-trillion in 2025-26, with the debt-to-GDP ratio rising to 42.6% from 41.1%
- The PBO said the government's two fiscal anchors — a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio and a balanced operating budget by 2028-29 — have 'imposed limited fiscal discipline,' noting the deficit-to-GDP ratio will rise to 2% in 2027-28 from 1.8% before declining
- Public debt charges are the fastest-growing federal expense, projected to hit $83-billion by 2030-31, up from $24.5-billion in 2021-22, with per-capita debt service costs rising to $1,952 from $640
- The International Monetary Fund has called on Ottawa to reinstate the debt-to-GDP ratio as its primary fiscal anchor to 'strengthen discipline, transparency, and credibility'
Why it matters: The PBO exposes a structural gap between Ottawa's reported deficits and its actual borrowing: Crown corporation loans and defence capital purchases bypass the deficit line, making the $1.67-trillion debt projection an understatement of real cash obligations. With debt service costs more than tripling to $83-billion by 2030-31, Canadian taxpayers are on the hook for a surging interest bill that the government's current fiscal anchors fail to capture.
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