Prediction markets prepare to invade one of crypto’s biggest and riskiest trades
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- Kalshi announced a partnership with Robinhood that generated 11 billion contracts traded by over 1 million users in 2025, making it the platform’s fastest‑growing revenue line.
- Polymarket is preparing to launch perpetual futures, targeting a slice of the $61.7 trillion 2025 perps market that now represents >70 % of centralized crypto exchange volume.
- Robinhood entered the prediction‑market space through Kalshi last year and now competes with Coinbase and Crypto.com as part of the new Coalition for Prediction Markets.
- Owen Lau of Clear Street warned that the 100× leverage of perps can increase volatility in U.S. crypto assets.
- Dan Dolev of Mizuho called the expansion defensive, noting that prediction‑market providers will face disruption.
Why it matters: Kalshi and Polymarket stand to capture a share of the $61.7 trillion 2025 perps market, while Robinhood and Coinbase risk losing users to a new leveraged‑prediction product that amplifies crypto volatility and draws regulatory scrutiny.
