Can Palantir pull off a Microsoft-style comeback? Here's what options say
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- Palantir options traders priced in a 10.5% move after Monday night's earnings, per Cboe LiveVol — above the 7.4% median move the stock has posted over the past year.
- Call volume ran more than 2x puts Monday, with 56,000 calls traded versus fewer than 25,000 puts (ThinkOrSwim); $120 million of $160 million in total premium went to calls (SpotGamma).
- The 130-strike call expiring Friday was the most popular bullish contract, with 8,500 contracts worth $4.4 million traded at $5.30 each — needing an 8% rally to break even.
- Microsoft chart looked similar going into its recent report, and the stock has bounced 25% over three days, a setup options traders appear to be replicating in Palantir.
- Palantir options have overestimated the actual post-earnings move for five straight quarters, per Cboe LiveVol data.
- Bears are still active: seven of the eight biggest dollar-amount trades Monday were neutral or bearish, headlined by a $3.4 million sale of 800 December 2028 145-strike calls.
Why it matters: Palantir's stock has been in a nine-month bear market, and Monday's earnings represent a pivotal moment — heavy call buying suggests traders are betting on a Microsoft-style relief rally, but the fact that options have overshot actual moves for five consecutive quarters shows this bullish positioning has repeatedly burned buyers. The single biggest trade of the day, a $3.4M sale of long-dated 145-strike calls, shows at least one large player is fading the optimism.
