SportsLine Model Flags Nabers, Cook as 2026 Fantasy Busts
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- Malik Nabers is being drafted around pick No. 36 but SportsLine's model doesn't rank him as a top-15 receiver, placing DeVonta Smith, Nico Collins and Zay Flowers above him because Nabers isn't a lock to be ready for the opener after tearing his ACL last season and a spring follow-up procedure, and the Giants are expected to lean on the run under OC Matt Nagy.
- James Cook carries an ADP around No. 13 overall (RB5 on average) but the model slots him at RB10 behind Derrick Henry and Chase Brown, pointing to a higher fumble rate last season, limited pass-game usage, and Josh Allen as a touchdown vulture in Buffalo.
- Terry McLaurin went from roughly 1,100 receiving yards and a career-high 13 touchdown catches to career lows of 582 yards and 3 TDs in 2025 — injuries played a role but his per-game averages dropped across the board, validating the model's call to fade him.
- The model also has a documented track record that includes identifying A.J. Brown as a 2020 sleeper, nailing Jonathan Taylor's 2021 monster season, correctly calling C.J. Stroud's 2024 step-back, and previously flagging Derrick Henry (2019), Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara (2018) and Davante Adams (2017).
- Top 2026 PPR ADP via CBS: Jahmyr Gibbs (1.39), Bijan Robinson (1.83), Ja'Marr Chase (3.94), Puka Nacua (4.22), Jonathan Taylor (5.89), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (6.06), Christian McCaffrey (7.39), Amon-Ra St. Brown (8.29), De'Von Achane (11.72), James Cook (12.50).
- SportsLine has run 10,000 simulations of the 2026 season and is fading one of the first five receivers off draft boards, ranking him barely inside the top 10 — a full breakdown lives behind its paywall.
- The 2026 NFL season kicks off Wednesday, Sept. 9, and the model is urging fantasy owners to avoid drafting players who end up as busts and instead find sleepers and rookies who outperform ADP.
Why it matters: Fantasy drafters paying pick 36 on Nabers or a first-round pick on Cook are paying a premium the model says isn't earned — Nabers is still recovering from a torn ACL and a spring procedure, and the Giants' expected run-heavy scheme under Matt Nagy caps his ceiling, while Cook's fumble issues plus Allen's goal-line presence depress his touchdown equity. Drafting either at current ADP is a measurable loss of expected value relative to the model's RB10/WR-outside-top-15 calls, and the model's prior hit rate on McLaurin, Stroud, and Taylor makes the fade credible rather than contrarian for its own sake.
