Gulf States Diversify Security Ties After US-Iran War
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- GCC nations are accelerating diversification of security partnerships after the US-Israel war on Iran created what analyst Anna Jacobs Khalaf called an "unprecedented security crisis," with Gulf states looking to deepen ties with Pakistan, China, Turkiye, and Europe rather than replace the US outright
- Iranian attacks since February 28 targeted military bases hosting US troops plus civilian sites including airports, energy facilities, and hotels across Gulf countries, and IRGC forces launched missiles and drones at Bahrain and Kuwait even after the US-Iran MoU was signed earlier this month
- Saudi Arabia had already signed a defence pact with Pakistan before the war broke out and is now building a "quad group" with Turkiye, Egypt, and Pakistan as part of broader regional autonomy efforts
- JD Vance disclosed that the UAE — described as "the most hawkish, most pro-Israel country" in the GCC — is holding unprecedented conversations with Iranian officials including the IRGC about economic incentives to make Iran "investable"
- Netanyahu refused to abide by the MoU's demands for a regional ceasefire including in Lebanon, while Israel bombed Qatari capital Doha last year during Gaza ceasefire mediations — an attack Trump said he was "very unhappy" about and denied approving
- Analysts stressed that diversification is not aimed at replacing the US, with Annelle Sheline of the Quincy Institute noting that US military bases in Gulf countries "became targets" rather than serving as deterrents during the conflict
Why it matters: GCC countries' shift away from sole reliance on US security guarantees directly alters Washington's already-deprioritized regional posture: Trump's own National Security Strategy had already written off the Middle East as a priority. With Netanyahu refusing ceasefire terms and Iran proving US bases were targets rather than shields, Gulf monarchies are now actively hedging with Pakistan, China, Turkiye, and even Tehran through economic channels.
