The domestic armed threat facing Iran — SkimNews
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- Iran arrested 111 "monarchist cells" across 26 provinces, announced March 18 by the Intelligence Ministry, with state media reporting an 8-member network linked to "pro-monarchy" groups caught in Fars province for using Molotov cocktails during January protests
- Kurdish fighters from PJAK, PDKI, and PAK — estimated at 5,000-8,000 — prepared for cross-border operations in early March but never received a clear signal from Washington or sufficient weaponry, according to Reuters
- Trump claimed he supplied arms to Kurdish forces but said they kept the weapons for themselves, undercutting the narrative of a coordinated US-backed ground offensive
- Jaish al-Adl, the most prominent Baloch separatist group, had a cell broken up in late August — one fighter killed, six arrested, and rifles, grenade launchers, and explosives seized
- Iran's judiciary has executed dozens of prisoners since the war began, including some January protesters, while the UN condemned state "brutality" during the crackdown
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said war pressure, sanctions, and a naval blockade could trigger another uprising, citing "100 percent inflation" and unpaid soldiers
- Trita Parsi (Quincy Institute) warned that if Trump deploys ground troops after the midterms, the US could seek to use armed militias inside Iran — a threat Iran's leaders are now framing as a "foreign-led hybrid-war campaign"
Why it matters: Iran is simultaneously managing border-based ethnic insurgencies, domestic protest crackdowns, and open US rhetoric encouraging regime change. Parsi's warning matters: if post-midterm escalation brings ground troops, ethnic fighters become a US proxy force inside Iran — converting a foreign war into an internal one and giving Tehran's "existential" framing a self-fulfilling edge.
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