The lesson from Canada’s collapsed trade talks with the US: negotiation may be futile
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- The US imposed 50% tariffs on $20bn (£14.6bn) of Canadian goods after negotiations collapsed at the 12am EST Saturday deadline, despite Trump claiming just days earlier that a "very fair deal for both" sides had been ironed out.
- Mark Carney rejected the final deal on the grounds that last-minute US demands would undermine Canadian sovereignty, pledged to match US tariffs "dollar for dollar," and brought negotiators home to Ottawa with no further meetings planned.
- Trump had announced the tariffs on 20 July, citing Canada's bans on US alcohol sales in eight of its 10 provinces and all three territories as the core grievance.
- Carney had asked provincial premiers to return US alcohol to shelves to seal the deal; Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew confirmed the request and urged Canada to fight instead, saying "you can't get a good deal with a bad person."
- JD Vance was recorded at a private event seemingly mocking Carney for standing down on "a lot of issues" during the negotiations.
- Former chief trade negotiator Steve Verheul warned in a briefing call with Canada's ambassador to the US that concessions would only lead to further American demands down the road.
- McMaster University political scientist Andrea Lawlor said the US now prioritizes its own interests over global economic coordination and warned that any agreement with the Trump administration should be seen as "prone to disintegrate at a moment's notice."
Why it matters: $20bn of Canadian goods now face 50% US import taxes after Ottawa walked away from what Carney called sovereignty-undermining demands, setting up a retaliatory trade war. The collapse came only two days after Trump publicly declared a "very fair deal" had been finalized, underscoring Lawlor's point that even seemingly settled negotiations with this administration should not be treated as binding.
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