Thailand pushes 'calibrated re-engagement' with Myanmar
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- Thailand and Myanmar issued an Aug 6 joint statement reaffirming support for Myanmar's full ASEAN participation following Min Aung Hlaing's two-day visit to meet PM Anutin Charnvirakul - his first since stepping down as military chief.
- Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow rejected accusations Thailand is legitimizing MAH, saying 'It's not about legitimacy, it's about reality,' and labeled the approach 'calibrated re-engagement' while noting Bangkok won't force other ASEAN members to follow.
- Thailand and Myanmar signed three agreements on Day 1 covering labor and environmental pollution along shared rivers, and a business forum drew roughly 700 participants, with Anutin stressing the economy 'must not be disrupted.'
- Min Aung Hlaing presented PowerPoint slides promoting investment opportunities, calling Myanmar 'a peaceful country blessed with abundant natural resources' while avoiding any mention of ongoing violent conflicts across the country.
- ASEAN has barred Myanmar's top leaders from its summits since the February 2021 coup and insists on implementing the April 2021 Five-Point Consensus before normalizing ties - a plan MAH claims was not fully endorsed by all members.
- The military coup has killed at least 100,000 people according to ACLED estimates, and the World Bank cut Myanmar's annual growth outlook to 2% on June 16, down from 3% prior to the global energy crisis.
- Analyst Wai Yan Phyo Naing told The Straits Times Thailand is mainly seeking to lessen its own border-related problems and has not pressured Myanmar to implement the Five-Point Consensus or improve domestic political conditions.
Why it matters: Bangkok's red-carpet treatment of a junta leader whose coup has killed at least 100,000 people, while ASEAN remains split, exposes the bloc's enforcement gap on the Five-Point Consensus. Thailand's 'calibrated re-engagement' rewards a regime that refuses to implement the peace plan and signals that ASEAN's unity on Myanmar is collapsing - just five months before the November summit where MAH's return must be decided by consensus.
