Cowboys 8.5-point favorites vs. Buccaneers on TNF — SkimNews
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- FanDuel is offering new users $250 in bonus bets on a $5+ wager for five days, anchored to Thursday's Buccaneers-Cowboys matchup at AT&T Stadium
- Dallas is an 8.5-point favorite with the total set at 47.5; Tampa Bay is still seeking its first win of the 2026 NFL season
- Baker Mayfield is sidelined after dislocating his throwing thumb, forcing undrafted free agent Jalon Daniels into the lineup after he posted 148 yards and two interceptions in Sunday's loss to Green Bay
- Dak Prescott enters off a 335-yard performance in which CeeDee Lamb hauled in 17 passes for 198 yards, fueling Dallas's 30.5-points-per-game average — second in the NFL behind only Buffalo
- The SportsLine Projection Model projects the over 47.5 hitting in 70% of its 10,000 simulations and has Dallas covering the 8.5 in 51%
- Tampa Bay's run defense ranks third in the league at 78.5 yards allowed per game, but the Bucs have committed nine turnovers (tied for second-most in the NFL) and allow 24 points per game despite sitting fourth in total yards allowed
Why it matters: The model projects a 70% hit rate on the over — well above the implied odds — in a game that pits the NFL's second-highest scoring offense (30.5 PPG) against a Bucs defense that ranks fourth in yards but 19th in points allowed, meaning Tampa's turnover-prone backup (two INTs last game) is feeding a Cowboys team allowing 28 PPG (29th). Bettors using the FanDuel promo get downside protection via the bonus bets on a matchup the model sees as one-sided toward points.
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