Here are the odds of SpaceX becoming the world's most valuable company
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- SpaceX debuted in public markets at a $2.6 trillion valuation, landing in fifth place just behind Amazon and more than $1 trillion ahead of Elon Musk's Tesla.
- SpaceX would need to rally roughly 70% to $340 per share to overtake Apple and Alphabet (each above $4.4 trillion) and claim second place behind Nvidia's $5 trillion market cap.
- Options traders price a roughly 50/50 chance that SpaceX touches $340 between now and July 2028, with June 2028 calls assigning about a 46% probability of hitting that strike, per ThinkOrSwim data.
- SpaceX overtaking Nvidia for the No. 1 spot carries only about a 38% chance by June 2028 and roughly 41% by December 2028, according to the same options pricing.
- SpaceX's options chain has a gap between June and December 2028 with no listed contracts, complicating precise timing estimates for that window.
Why it matters: Options pricing implies SpaceX is likelier to stall in fifth place than reach the summit — its odds of overtaking Nvidia don't crack 50% even through end of 2028, meaning the roughly $2.4 trillion gap to the top is priced to persist for years despite a splashy IPO debut.
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