Ken Ziffren Offers Optimistic View On Industry, Even When It Comes To AI & Federal Tax Credit Legislation — SkimNews
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- Ken Ziffren projected the U.S. box office would reach $10 billion and the global box office nearly $36 billion, the best levels since pre-Covid 2019, underpinning his unusually upbeat assessment of the theater industry.
- MPTER Act would make film and TV productions costing more than $1 million with 75% of production in the U.S. eligible for federal credits; Ziffren projected passage would bring $10 billion to the industry and a surge in U.S. production jobs.
- Wide releases rebounded from 75 in 2024 to 94 this year, nearing the roughly 100 pre-Covid level; Ziffren called them essential to keeping moviegoing attendance stable and growing.
- Studios can earn as much as $250 million from a pay-one licensing window, according to Ziffren; after PVOD, licensing into ad-supported and pay TV adds revenue while distribution costs are limited to remittance taxes, residuals and occasional profit participations.
- AI is already lowering post- and pre-production costs, though Ziffren said its effect on investment is anyone's guess; he linked younger viewers' aversion to AI and preference for physical craftsmanship to The Odyssey's $1.8 billion gross.
- Paramount and Warner Bros Discovery recently merged, and Ziffren said he hopes the combination succeeds and is not like earlier mergers, reflecting his mixed assessment of major media transactions.
- YouTube and ESPN's deal included the NFL Network purchase, while Sunday Ticket plaintiffs can file a new case now that the bundle has left DirecTV for YouTube; Ziffren also weighed whether the NFL would take the case to the Supreme Court.
Why it matters: U.S. production businesses stand to gain if the MPTER Act passes before year-end: Ziffren projected $10 billion for the industry and a surge in domestic jobs. The bill’s $1 million cost threshold and 75% U.S. production requirement would create a concrete federal incentive as productions face competition from more than 55 countries and other jurisdictions.
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