SportsLine Model Backs Under in Chiefs-Broncos Opener — SkimNews
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- Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium, closing out Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season.
- Kansas City is a 2.5-point favorite with a 43.5 over/under, coming off a 6-11 season that snapped a nine-year AFC West title streak.
- Denver went 14-3 in 2025, won its first division title since 2015, and lost 10-7 to New England in the AFC Championship Game.
- SportsLine's model projects the Under on 43.5 at a 63% rate, simulating 40 combined points across 10,000 game simulations.
- Bo Nix is projected under 200 passing yards with one TD, while Patrick Mahomes is projected at 180 yards and one score.
- Denver's defense allowed just 18.3 points per game (third-fewest in NFL) in 2025; Kansas City allowed 19.3 points (sixth-fewest).
Why it matters: With both teams ranking in the top six in scoring defense last year and the model projecting 40 combined points, bettors get a data-driven lean toward the Under on a 43.5 total. Kansas City laying 2.5 points at home despite a 6-11 record reflects market faith in Mahomes against a 14-3 Denver team that just reached the AFC Championship.
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