Social Security COLA for 2027 may be 3.5% to 3.6%, new estimates show — the highest in 3 years — SkimNews
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- The Senior Citizens League projects a 3.5% Social Security COLA for 2027, down from its prior 3.6% estimate, which would add $67.90 to average monthly benefit checks.
- AARP forecasts a 3.6% COLA for 2027, up from its August 3.5% estimate, increasing the average retired worker's monthly benefit by $75.
- Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, estimates 3.5% — up from her August 3.4% projection — and flagged volatile oil prices since the Iran war began as a key driver of recent inflation.
- The 2026 COLA was 2.8%, boosting benefits for roughly 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income recipients; the 2027 projection represents a 0.7 to 0.8 percentage point increase over that.
- The official 2027 COLA will be announced in October by the Social Security Administration, determined by the year-over-year change in third-quarter CPI-W data from 2026 to 2027.
- The CPI-W rose 3.5% over the 12 months ending in August 2025, while the broader consumer price index climbed 3.4% over the same period, per Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
- Over the past decade, Social Security COLAs have ranged from 0% in 2016 to a four-decade high of 8.7% in 2023, averaging roughly 3.1%.
Why it matters: Roughly 75 million beneficiaries currently receiving a 2.8% bump would see the annual adjustment climb to 3.5%–3.6%, adding $67.90 to $75 to average monthly checks. The estimate, driven by August CPI-W data, reflects persistent inflation that has been amplified by oil price volatility since the Iran war began — meaning retirees' purchasing power remains under pressure even as nominal benefits rise.
Ask SkimNews
