Projecting next year's QB market: Most likely scenarios and long-shot possibilities for 16 NFL teams
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- Lamar Jackson enters 2026 with two years left on his deal after Baltimore failed to reach an extension this offseason; his 2027 cap hit is projected at $84.3M after a restructure that lowered his 2026 cap hit by about $40M
- Atlanta Falcons are running a QB competition between Michael Penix Jr. (recovering from torn ACL) and Tua Tagovailoa (one-year deal), with the Dolphins still on the hook for nearly $55M in guaranteed salary for Tagovailoa this season
- Arizona Cardinals have Jacoby Brissett as starter, with Carson Beck — the first pick of the third round — the only QB under contract beyond 2026, and ESPN's Football Power Index projects just 5 wins for 2026
- Bryce Young's fifth-year option was picked up by Carolina for $25.9M ($32M total over two seasons), but no extension was reached as the team wants to see 2026 development before deciding long term
- Baltimore Ravens hired Jessie Minter (former Chargers defensive coordinator) as new head coach after firing longtime coach John Harbaugh, plus first-time offensive coordinator Declan Doyle following a sub-.500 finish
- The analysis excludes Dak Prescott (signed through 2028 with $45M fully guaranteed for 2027) because his contract's dead-cap structure makes him virtually uncuttable or untradeable
- Jacoby Brissett received a roughly $10M raise over his previous ~$5M deal after a contract standoff with Arizona this spring and summer
Why it matters: With 16 teams' QB situations in flux, the 2027 offseason could reshape the league — particularly if Lamar Jackson, who holds a no-trade clause and cannot be franchise-tagged, plays out his deal and hits free agency in March 2028. Atlanta's decision on Penix's 2028 option (due by first week of May 2027) adds another major variable to that market.
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