Thai Tourism Hit by Gulf War, 120k Seats Lost, US Holds
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Thai Hotels Association president Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun reported that the Gulf war has caused the loss of more than 120,000 airline seats, hitting Israeli arrivals hardest.
- Etihad, Emirates and Qatar Airways have cut seat capacity by 50%, contributing to a slowdown in new bookings and airfares spiking up to 200% on some routes.
- Koh Phangan and other destinations that rely on Israeli tourists have seen a direct decline in visitors due to the conflict.
- Northern Thailand experienced hazardous PM2.5 levels, reducing Songkran bookings to 50‑60% of the usual 100%.
- U.S. long‑haul market remains the only strong segment, with leisure and corporate travelers not cancelling trips despite the conflict.
- Thai hotels have shifted to flexible booking policies and targeted corporate and non‑flight‑disrupted markets such as the U.S., Asia, Nordic countries, Russia and CIS.
- Tourism Authority of Thailand forecast foreign arrivals at 30 million (down 18% from the 36.7 million target) if the Gulf war lasts 1‑3 months.
Why it matters: Domestic hotels lose revenue as foreign arrivals drop 20% YoY and seat capacity halves, while U.S. travelers continue to book, giving American carriers and U.S.-linked tourism a relative advantage. The shift forces Thai operators to seek government tax relief and diversify toward corporate and non‑conflict markets.
