SpaceX Drops 13.6% to All-Time Low on $15.8B AI Capex
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- SpaceX closed down 13.6% to $108.27 on Wednesday, hitting a new all-time closing low, after its first earnings report as a public company showed AI capex ballooning to $15.8 billion in Q2 from $7.7 billion in Q1 and a $1.26 billion AI operating loss.
- SpaceX beat consensus on the top and bottom lines, posting Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion versus $6.81 billion expected and adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion versus $2.0 billion expected, with overall capex of $18.37 billion slightly below the $18.58 billion estimate.
- SpaceX announced a partnership with Nvidia to design the Starmind AI-1 payload using Nvidia's Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs, with Musk naming Nvidia the exclusive supplier of chips for SpaceX's AI needs and saying the deal will boost peak satellite computing capacity to 250 kW.
- A lockup expiration on August 6 will free up to 20% of SpaceX shares for sale, roughly tripling the tradable float, according to Epistrophy Capital's Cory Johnson, adding supply-side pressure just two days after the earnings miss.
- JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth projected SpaceX capex of nearly $200 billion in both 2027 and 2028, warning it further pressures free cash flow in 2027, though he pointed to Musk's claim that annual revenue run rate could hit $100 billion by year-end.
- Starlink subscribers topped 12 million at the end of Q2, with the connectivity business posting adjusted EBITDA of $2.60 billion versus $2.41 billion estimated, and Musk said on the call that Starlink could eventually deliver 'the majority of the world's internet.'
- Musk is reportedly still pushing for a merger between SpaceX and Tesla, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that Tesla executives are weighing how to dispose of Tesla's China business should the deal move forward, partly due to SpaceX's government and defense contracts.
Why it matters: The stock is cratering even though revenue and EBITDA topped estimates, showing investors are punishing the $15.8B AI capex rather than rewarding the beat. With an August 6 lockup set to triple the tradable float and JPMorgan modeling $200B in annual capex for 2027 and 2028, supply pressure and cash burn questions will likely dominate the tape into the next quarter.
