How injuries have shaken up the NBA title and MVP races, two weeks in — SkimNews
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- ESPN's Basketball Power Index put the Thunder, Spurs and Knicks' combined title probability at 38% two weeks in, down from roughly three-fifths before the season and still assuming Cason Wallace and Chet Holmgren return before the playoffs.
- Oklahoma City Thunder opened with 12-point wins over San Antonio and Denver, then lost by 24 in Dallas and 21 in Houston while missing four of its top six players. Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace suffered potentially season-ending injuries, while Chet Holmgren's right patellar tendon tear will sideline him for at least two months.
- New York Knicks opened 2-4 and needed two big comebacks against Detroit and Chicago to secure their only wins, while the San Antonio Spurs opened 4-2 but needed overtime to beat the injury-wracked Jazz.
- Houston Rockets opened 5-1 with wins over Oklahoma City and San Antonio, while the Philadelphia 76ers, Detroit Pistons and Boston Celtics combined for 16-3—one fewer loss than the Knicks have by themselves.
- Coby White was among the group of stars and star role players who had already missed multiple games in the first two weeks—more than a full roster's worth in total. League discussions point to increased pace and physical stress, alongside soft-tissue problems and fluke collisions, while schedule reductions and 40-minute games remain unlikely.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander fell to 16th in PER among qualified players, with Nikola Jokic at 24th after both finished in the PER top two in each of the previous two seasons. If he keeps Oklahoma City near the top of the West and posts his usual numbers with less help, his narrative gains a boost in the bid for a third straight MVP.
- Victor Wembanyama is the clear betting favorite for MVP after an MVP-level start, but reached only the minimum games for award qualification last season; falling short of 65 games again opens the field to candidates including Luka Doncic, Cade Cunningham, Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brunson and Cooper Flagg.
Why it matters: ESPN's Basketball Power Index cut the Thunder, Spurs and Knicks' combined title probability from roughly three-fifths to 38% within two weeks. The Rockets' 5-1 start and the 76ers', Pistons' and Celtics' combined 16-3 record, alongside lottery rules that give all 30 teams an incentive to win, strengthen the case for second-tier teams to consider deadline trades aimed at the Finals.
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