German firms stuck between US and China, study finds
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- University of Sussex published a study with King's College London in the Review of International Political Economy that maps DAX and MDAX firms’ sales, production, and supply‑chain exposure to the United States and China.
- German firms have deepened revenue ties to both the United States and China over the last decade, leaving them more exposed to super‑power rivalry across all sectors.
- Carmakers and machinery firms rely most heavily on the Chinese market, while chemical and pharmaceutical companies depend on the United States for R&D and production, and digital, telecoms, and semiconductor firms depend on suppliers in both countries.
- BMW generates more revenue from China than the United States, manufactures a quarter of its vehicles there, sources over €1.4 billion from Chinese battery maker CATL, and faces a $10 billion‑plus tariff from the Trump administration on China‑exported vehicles, making de‑risking impractical.
- Siemens derives 24 % of its revenue from the United States (Healthineers) and 12 % from China, with 18 % of its suppliers in China and a quarter of supplier relationships in the United States, leaving no viable de‑risking path without serious business damage.
- Dr. Steven Rolf says that leading industrial players such as Siemens and BMW cannot decouple from either superpower without devastating losses, explaining why Berlin cannot formulate a coherent strategy.
- Hostile trade measures—including tariffs, financial sanctions, export restrictions, and blacklists—by the United States and China translate into financial losses and difficult decisions for German businesses, as the study’s meso‑economic mapping shows.
Why it matters: German companies face mounting financial losses and strategic inflexibility as U.S. and Chinese trade pressures intensify, while Berlin remains unable to craft a coherent policy, leaving the firms’ shareholders, employees, and the broader German economy bearing the brunt of super‑power rivalry.
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