China-Philippines South China Sea Clashes Resume After Two-Year Calm — SkimNews
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- Clashes between Chinese Coast Guard personnel and Philippine forces have become sharper and more frequent since July, including a Jul 20 baton-and-paddle fight near Second Thomas Shoal that seriously injured a Filipino marine and a Sep 18 collision near Sabina Shoal.
- China has doubled its Coast Guard patrolling presence around Scarborough Shoal in 2025 versus 2024 and is on track to double it again in 2026, according to Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative data cited in the commentary.
- A tacit arrangement since July 2024 allowed the Philippines 13 unhindered rotation and resupply missions to the grounded BRP Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal, on the reported condition that Manila refrain from construction work to reinforce the rusting WWII-era outpost.
- Beijing codified administrative control over Scarborough Shoal by announcing a "Huangyan Dao National Nature Reserve" in 2025, with four Chinese agencies jointly issuing management rules on Aug 1 that establish routine patrols and restrict unauthorized fishing.
- No publicly known US Freedom of Navigation Operations have been conducted in the South China Sea since August 2025, a pause the author links to Trump's willingness to negotiate with Xi and to the war on Iran weakening US military posture in East Asia.
- European navies have partially filled the void: the UK conducted a joint FONOP with Australia earlier this month and sailed through the Spratly Islands in May, while the Dutch navy transited the Paracel Islands in May.
Why it matters: China is converting physical presence into codified legal "management and control"—doubling Coast Guard patrols at Scarborough Shoal annually while writing administrative rules for a new national nature reserve—just as the US halts FONOPs and the Philippines faces a hard choice on reinforcing a decaying outpost. For Manila, the crumbling BRP Sierra Madre means it must commit to costly reinforcement or effectively cede an Exclusive Economic Zone foothold before the 10th anniversary of the 2016 arbitration ruling it won.
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