Nuclear war and malicious use of AI threaten end of humanity by 2100, says Lancet assessment — SkimNews
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- The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health identified 17 major threats to human health over the next 75 years, topped by malicious AI use and nuclear conflict, which the report says carry risks of human extinction.
- Nuclear conflict could end humanity by injecting enough particles into the upper atmosphere to block sunlight and cause famine, while AI-created biological weapons pose a parallel extinction-level threat, the commission warned.
- Limiting global heating to 1.8C instead of letting it reach 4.4C could prevent 1.89bn years of healthy life being lost, according to the commission's best- and worst-case scenario modeling using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).
- Steep reductions in international health aid by major donor nations including the US and UK could cause up to 1.5bn lost healthy years before 2100, with nearly 70% of that burden falling on sub-Saharan Africa.
- Fifteen other "major catastrophic threats" causing more than 1bn cumulative DALYs each include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, climate breakdown, conventional conflict, high alcohol use, high blood pressure, income inequality, low educational attainment, pandemics, obesity, poor mental health, smoking, and unhealthy ageing.
- Prof Christopher Murray, commission co-chair and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, said the team began three years ago expecting three main threats (conflict, climate, pandemics) but found a "much larger number" requiring dedicated government funding.
- The commission's 35 experts will present their findings Sunday at the World Health Summit in Berlin, with the assessment to be updated annually to incorporate new data and emerging hazards.
Why it matters: The commission is deliberately action-oriented — every one of the 17 threats on its list was included only if potential solutions exist — and the assessment will be updated yearly, turning it into a recurring benchmark for policymakers. The most concrete near-term lever is aid: the US and UK are among donors cutting spending, and the model says up to 1.5bn healthy years could be lost by 2100 with nearly 70% concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa.
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