UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic picks, predictions: Upset loss would end Roadrunners' College Football Playoff hopes — SkimNews
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- UTSA opened 7-1 with a 4-0 American Conference record but was left out of the first College Football Playoff top 25; Boise State was the only Group of 6 program ranked.
- SportsLine Projection Model gave UTSA a 0.7% playoff chance, 40th nationally, despite +600 playoff odds, while assigning Boise State a 77.7% chance.
- DraftKings lists UTSA at -6.5; the Roadrunners drew 69% of the spread handle but only 28% of bets, while the Over on 72.5 drew 86% of money and 60% of tickets.
- Florida Atlantic is 4-0 at home with a 3-1 ATS record, would become bowl eligible with a win, and averages 37.8 points per game, but its defense allows 468.9 yards and 35.8 points.
- Owen McCown has started 35 straight games and thrown for 1,751 yards, 10 touchdowns and four interceptions for a UTSA offense that ranks fourth in the American at 33.5 points per game.
- Easton Messer leads the nation with 74 catches and has 898 yards, nine touchdowns and two punt-return scores; on Oct. 24 against Rice, he became the only player this century with two receiving, two rushing and one punt-return touchdown in one game.
- DraftKings prices the recommended Owls alternate at +10.5 paired with an alternate under 80.5 at +109, even though the projection model expects 63 total points.
Why it matters: For bettors, the key tension is that UTSA commands a 69% handle but only 28% of tickets while the model gives the Roadrunners a 0.7% playoff chance. That split favors the preview’s specific recommendation: Florida Atlantic’s +10.5 alternate and an 80.5 under, rather than a straight Roadrunners win.
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