Iran’s calculations as US escalation looms: Trust, midterms, Hormuz — SkimNews
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- Iran continues to demand sanctions relief, unfreezing of Iranian assets, an end to the U.S. naval blockade and guarantees against renewed attacks before agreeing to help restore normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz; Washington wants nuclear concessions first.
- Negar Mortazavi says Iran’s priority is a permanent end to the war and deterrence against repeat attacks, while Sina Toossi says the collapse of the June arrangement brokered by Pakistan and Qatar hardened Tehran’s push for tangible, durable guarantees.
- China announced Tuesday that it will send an envoy to relevant regional countries soon to help prevent another round of escalation.
- Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye met senior Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday and pledged to continue discussions on regional peace and security; the three nations signed the Mecca defence pact in August.
- Strait of Hormuz carried about one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments before the war; October recorded the most attacks on commercial shipping around it, while Brent crude surged above $117 a barrel from about $72 after Iranian attacks on tankers.
- Trump said U.S. attacks would not occur until after the November 3 midterms, when all 435 House seats and 35 of 100 Senate seats are contested; a Reuters/Ipsos survey put approval of his handling of the war at 34%, the lowest of either term.
- Mohsen Rezaei, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary, said the armed forces were prepared to respond to any new attack by invading neighboring states and hitting bases used in U.S. operations under a new offensive strategy.
Why it matters: Iran gains bargaining power at the expense of U.S. farmers and small businesses: diesel has nearly doubled, while Brent crude is above $117 versus about $72 pre-war. With Trump’s conflict approval at 34% before the November 3 midterms, the economic and political costs of continued pressure are already narrowing his room to escalate.
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