India Chip Sovereignty to Hit 13% by 2030, Overall Lags
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- India's semiconductor chip production sovereignty score is projected to climb from 0% in 2025 to 13% by 2030, per Forrester's Global Sovereignty Forecast 2025 to 2030.
- India's overall technology sovereignty score will rise only modestly, from 32% in 2025 to 35% by 2030, reflecting gaps in AI, cloud infrastructure, data center capacity, software ecosystems, talent, and strategic partnerships.
- China and the US will continue leading global tech sovereignty over the next five years, with autonomy concentrated among a small number of geopolitical and economic powers.
- The global average tech sovereignty score across 14 assessed countries—Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, the UK, and the US—will rise only minimally from 39% in 2025 to 40% in 2030.
- Biswajeet Mahapatra, principal analyst at Forrester, said India's success will depend on balancing strategic autonomy with strong global partnerships while investing in trusted infrastructure and resilient technology ecosystems.
- Forrester's tech sovereignty index assesses countries across nine dimensions: government AI investment, cloud sovereignty, workforce availability, AI model development, data center capacity, data center autonomy, semiconductor production, software creation, and rare earths processing.
Why it matters: Forrester's 13-point jump in chip sovereignty masks a stubborn reality: India's overall tech autonomy gains just 3 percentage points by 2030 because AI models, cloud, data centers, and rare earths processing remain weak links. With the US and China entrenched at the top, India's path forward leans on alliances and open technologies rather than full self-sufficiency.
