India chip sovereignty to hit 13% by 2030; overall tech score crawls
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- Forrester's Global Sovereignty Forecast 2025 to 2030 projects India's semiconductor chip production sovereignty score will rise from 0% in 2025 to 13% by 2030, reflecting domestic chip manufacturing momentum.
- India's overall technology sovereignty score is forecast to edge up modestly from 32% in 2025 to just 35% by 2030, a gain Forrester attributes to shortfalls in AI, cloud, data centers, software, talent, and partnerships.
- The global average tech sovereignty score across 14 countries (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, UK, US) will rise only from 39% to 40% over the same period.
- China and the US are expected to retain the highest overall tech sovereignty scores through 2030, underscoring that sovereignty remains concentrated among a few geopolitical and economic powers.
- Forrester's tech sovereignty index measures countries across nine dimensions: government AI investment, cloud sovereignty, technology workforce availability, AI model development, data center capacity relative to spending, data center autonomy, semiconductor production, software creation, and rare earths processing.
- Biswajeet Mahapatra, principal analyst at Forrester, said India's success depends on balancing strategic autonomy with strong global partnerships while investing in trusted infrastructure and resilient ecosystems.
Why it matters: India's three-percentage-point gain in overall tech sovereignty versus a 13-point leap in chips reveals that semiconductor fabs alone won't close its autonomy gap; without parallel investments in AI, cloud, data centers, and software, India remains dependent on the same US-China duopoly that already leads the 14-country field by a wide margin.
