Fed's Miran: Weak Jobs Report Backs More Rate Cuts
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- Stephen Miran said February's 92,000 drop in nonfarm payrolls bolsters the case for more rate cuts, telling CNBC the Fed should focus on supporting the labor market rather than fighting inflation, asserting "we don't have an inflation problem."
- Miran said he views a modestly restrictive monetary policy stance as inappropriate and believes rates should be near neutral, which he estimates is about a full percentage point below the current 3.5%-3.75% target range.
- Federal Reserve officials at the December meeting estimated neutral at 3.1%, implying two more quarter-point cuts from the current range; the Fed has already executed three consecutive quarter-point cuts in late 2025.
- Miran attributes persistently high inflation readings to measurement issues, pointing to portfolio management fees that rise as a mechanical function of higher asset values rather than genuine price pressures.
- Miran dismissed the recent oil price surge tied to the Iran war as a one-off headline shock, saying the Fed typically does not respond to such moves and that core inflation is a better predictor of medium-term trends.
- Miran has dissented at every FOMC meeting he has attended since his September appointment, consistently preferring half-point cuts over the committee's quarter-point moves, and said he hopes not to dissent again at the upcoming meeting.
Why it matters: Miran's continued push for cuts reflects the deep divide on the FOMC: he sees room for rates roughly a percentage point lower than current levels, while the December consensus already implied two more cuts to reach neutral at 3.1%. With a 92,000 payroll drop giving him fresh ammunition, his dissent record — at every meeting since September — highlights how far apart the Fed's most dovish voice is from his colleagues on both the inflation outlook and the appropriate policy stance.
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