US has too few interceptors to deter war with China, experts say
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- Heritage Foundation report finds the US has "less than 10 percent" of the PAC-3 MSE, THAAD, SM-6, and SM-3 interceptors required to deter or prevail in a high-intensity conflict with China.
- In the first four days of Operation Epic Fury, US and allied forces expended approximately 1,738 theater surface-to-air munitions defending against 565 Iranian ballistic missiles and 57 cruise missiles.
- CSIS Missile Defense Project director Tom Karako said the Pentagon's January production targets were set before Iran war expenditures "lit off billions of dollars in a decade worth of production per work in some cases."
- The Pentagon announced a seven-year, $3 billion deal with Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman to boost PAC-3 solid rocket motor production and "quadruple" annual THAAD interceptor production; Northrop says it aims to triple motor production by 2027.
- Adm. Sam Paparo, head of US Indo-Pacific Command, told an April hearing that "current production timelines are misaligned with operational expenditures and the threats we face," flagging a lack of solutions for countering cheap drones.
- Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Lockheed representatives July 28 to discuss license-building PAC-3 missiles domestically, but such an agreement would not produce usable missiles until 2030.
Why it matters: The Pentagon's $3 billion production deal won't close a gap that CSIS projects will leave the US in a multi-year "window of vulnerability" — Adm. Paparo says timelines are already "misaligned with operational expenditures," meaning war planners' previous recovery schedule no longer holds against a China contingency.
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