Novo is betting on its next chapter as Eli Lilly gains more ground in GLP-1s — SkimNews
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Novo Nordisk held its Capital Markets Day on Monday, targeting more than five multi-blockbuster launches by 2030 and over 150 billion Danish kroner (~$23 billion) in pipeline sales by 2035 as it tries to diversify beyond Wegovy and Ozempic.
- Investors pummeled Novo's stock after the event, underwhelmed by 2026–2030 growth targets that matched pharmaceutical industry averages and skeptical of the lack of clarity around a near-term turnaround plan.
- Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks told CNBC that one-third of new GLP-1 pill patients are taking Lilly's Foundayo, and its share of the oral obesity market is growing "week by week" since launching months after Novo's Wegovy pill.
- Lilly claims an early lead in the newly covered Medicare obesity drug market, with 700,000 seniors starting GLP-1s since July and 70% on Lilly's drugs — primarily Zepbound.
- Lilly held approximately 61% of the U.S. GLP-1 market in Q2 versus Novo's roughly 39%, and Leerink analyst David Risinger expects Foundayo to eventually dominate the global pill market in part because it is cheaper to manufacture at scale than the peptide-based Wegovy pill.
- Wegovy and Ozempic account for roughly two-thirds of Novo's sales, with combined 2025 sales of $31 billion, and semaglutide patent protection expires in 2032 — the clock Novo's new pipeline must beat.
Why it matters: Novo's competitive position keeps deteriorating just as it needs to sell a convincing post-2023 growth story: with roughly 61% U.S. GLP-1 share, 70% of new Medicare obesity patients on its drugs, and a cheaper-to-manufacture oral pill gaining ground weekly, Lilly has structural advantages that Novo's pipeline may not offset before semaglutide loses exclusivity in 2032 and two-thirds of its sales become contestable.
Ask SkimNews
