Kim Jong-un Passes Up Trump's Rare Diplomatic Opening
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- Trump announced on August 16 he is ordering the Pentagon to "substantially reduce" joint US-South Korea military exercises, calling them "costly" and "hostile" toward North Korea—language that echoes a longstanding DPRK complaint.
- Kim Yo-jong said on August 19 she knows of no current communication between her brother and Trump, despite repeated US signals including a social media post captioned "Hey Donald, we cool … Right?"
- Trump expressed resentment toward South Korea for refusing to send warships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, undermining the alliance and potentially removing an obstacle to accommodating Pyongyang's demands.
- Kim Jong-un could pursue multiple concrete gains from renewed talks: lifting of US economic sanctions (which Trump has unilateral legal authority to reduce), withdrawal of US troops from South Korea, and opening Japan talks that could unlock billions in economic assistance under the 2002 Pyongyang Declaration.
- The DPRK economy has grown by at least 3 percent annually for three consecutive years, and Russia and China no longer enforce international sanctions—reducing the urgency of sanctions relief and possibly weakening Kim's incentive to engage.
- Trump has just over two years left in office, and the article argues his successor is unlikely to label alliance exercises as "hostile" or match his willingness to trade troop presence for a deal.
- Historical precedent suggests outreach to Washington could backfire on Beijing and Moscow: Xi Jinping invited Kim to China in March 2018 only after the first Trump-Kim Singapore summit was announced, and the two leaders met three times that year.
Why it matters: Trump has fewer than two and a half years left in office, and no successor is likely to call alliance exercises "hostile" or trade troop presence for a handshake. If Kim's hesitancy stems from Hanoi trauma rather than strategic calculation, he risks forfeiting the only US administration willing to openly undermine the ROK alliance on his behalf—and the sanctions relief, troop withdrawal, and Japanese aid that could come with it.
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