Anthropic is AI trade's last big hope for a major IPO this year — SkimNews
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- Anthropic confidentially filed an IPO prospectus with the SEC in early June and holds 75% odds on Kalshi of officially announcing a 2026 IPO — the only one of 23 listed companies above 50%.
- OpenAI ruled out a 2026 debut after CEO Sam Altman cited AI safety concerns, leaving Kalshi odds at just 3% for 2026 and 50-50 for any IPO by June 2027.
- Plaid (10%), Deel (3%), and Databricks (1%) saw their 2026 IPO odds collapse from 50%+ earlier in the year as the postponement wave widened.
- Anthropic's Q3 revenue came in at $16.8 billion with weaker quarter-over-quarter growth, and its revised IPO valuation range started at $1.5 trillion versus the prior at-least-$2 trillion expectation.
- U.S. IPOs priced in 2026 are down 33% versus 2025 according to Renaissance Capital, even as total proceeds rose sharply on mega-cap debuts like SpaceX's June listing.
- 22V Research analyst Dauvin Peterson wrote that the revised Anthropic valuation "added fuel to the fire for the AI-related equities that were already under pressure."
Why it matters: Investors banking on AI companies migrating from private to public markets are running out of 2026 candidates — and the lone remaining hopeful, Anthropic, just guided to a valuation starting at $1.5T, down from the $2T+ the market had priced in, signaling the AI-equity bid is weakening rather than waiting to be confirmed by a public print.
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