Nvidia Shrugs Off $1 Trillion Revenue Forecast
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- Jensen Huang disclosed at Nvidia's GTC keynote that the company has visibility into $1 trillion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue through 2027, yet shares were little changed after the announcement and slipped 0.7% on Tuesday.
- Nvidia is now worth less than $4.5 trillion, down from the $5 trillion market cap it reached after Huang's fall forecast of $500 billion in Blackwell and Rubin revenue through end-of-2026.
- Seaport Research's Jay Goldberg called the implied $500 billion in 2027 revenue "impressive in absolute terms" but said there's "not much upside" versus the FactSet consensus of $443 billion in calendar 2027 data-center revenue.
- Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon countered that the $1 trillion figure counts only Blackwell and Rubin, so total data-center revenue will exceed it, and called the guidance "a current snapshot only" with seven quarters remaining for trends to improve.
- Goldberg, Wall Street's lone Nvidia bear, said the chip maker commands more than 80% of the AI chip market but is "bumping up against the law of large numbers" as rivals Broadcom and AMD land chip deals with hyperscaler customers.
- TD Cowen's Joshua Buchalter said investors see more "torque and potential upside" in Nvidia's supply chain than in Nvidia itself, noting a stock doubling would require a $9 trillion market cap — roughly the combined GDP of Germany and India.
- Buchalter added that TSMC's role as the majority AI chip supplier "naturally protects the industry from itself" against over-ordering, while the AI build-out looks "much more structural than cyclical."
Why it matters: When a $1 trillion revenue forecast can't budge a $4.5 trillion company, the law of large numbers is doing exactly what it does. With generalist investors still needing convincing on AI spending durability, capital is rotating from Nvidia itself into its supply chain for better risk/reward.
