China's Leverage to End the Iran War — SkimNews
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- The U.S.-Iran war has stretched beyond seven months after Trump predicted it would last no more than 100 hours, with the original plan to assassinate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and install a compliant successor failing to collapse the theocracy or force surrender.
- Trump has threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, invasion of Persian Gulf islands, and 'wiping out Iranian civilization,' but never acted on any threat due to regional pressure, casualty concerns, and economic fears — and now appears poised for massive escalation after the November 3 midterms.
- China is signaling a break from its traditional avoidance of mediation — Xi Jinping hinted at intervention during last month's BRICS summit and Chinese diplomats privately indicated Beijing is ready to step in if requested by the parties.
- Beijing's leverage was demonstrated by the 2023 Iran-Saudi Arabia normalization deal, where China served as co-signer and guarantor; that agreement has held firm for three years despite regional tensions, a model the article argues is needed for U.S.-Iran diplomacy.
- China has prevented world oil prices from surging to $150 a barrel by sharply reducing its oil demand, but if oil production facilities are knocked out or monarchies toppled, Beijing will no longer be able to contain prices.
- The proposed framework would build on the July 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and the 2015 JCPOA — a permanent regional ceasefire, permanent Strait opening with shared environmental service fees, lifting the U.S. blockade, and six-month nuclear working groups — with China as guarantor and IAEA inspections capping enrichment at 3.67% U235.
Why it matters: With Trump's blockade failing to stabilize Persian Gulf oil flows — Ansar Allah closed Bab el-Mandeb to Saudi ships and strikes hit the East-West pipeline — and massive post-midterm escalation appearing likely, China is the only power with documented leverage over both Washington and Tehran, as proven by its still-standing 2023 guarantee of the Iran-Saudi deal.
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