Extra First-Round Picks Rarely Win NFL Titles — SkimNews
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- 2022 Jets drafted Sauce Gardner (4th), Garrett Wilson (10th) and Jermaine Johnson (26th) and earned two Rookie of the Year awards plus a Pro Bowl nod, yet posted a 22-46 record across four losing seasons, missed the playoffs each year, fired coach Robert Saleh and GM Joe Douglas, and traded Gardner to Indianapolis (Nov. 2025) and Johnson to Tennessee (March 2026) — leaving only Wilson on the roster.
- 2022 Giants took Kayvon Thibodeaux (5th) and Evan Neal (7th) and made the playoffs that fall, but won just 13 total games over the next three seasons; Neal was released before 2026 and is now on the Raiders' practice squad after injuries and a failed position switch to guard.
- 2022 Chiefs converted the Tyreek Hill trade into first-round picks Trent McDuffie (21st) and George Karlaftis (30th), then won back-to-back Super Bowls — success the piece attributes not just to Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid but to replacing Hill's production while adding cheap defensive talent.
- 2023 Texans selected CJ Stroud (2nd), traded up one spot for Will Anderson Jr. (giving up the 12th, 33rd and two future first-rounders) and hired DeMeco Ryans; Houston went 10-7, 10-7 and 12-5 over the next three seasons, making the playoffs every year.
- 2023 Seahawks took Devon Witherspoon (5th) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (20th) under a new coaching staff with Sam Darnold at QB; Smith-Njigba was named 2025 Offensive Player of the Year while Seattle went 14-3 and won Super Bowl LX.
- Lions stacked four first-rounders across 2022-23 drafts (Aidan Hutchinson, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jack Campbell) and reached the NFC Championship Game in 2023 (12-5) before winning 15 games the next season — built around Jared Goff rather than drafting a new quarterback.
- The review identified 103 NFL Drafts since 2000 with multiple first-round picks per team, covering 216 players and 25 quarterbacks; among 44 struggling teams (six or fewer wins) holding extra picks, 86% improved by roughly three wins or more.
Why it matters: The Jets hold three 2027 first-rounders and the Browns two — capital that, across 44 struggling teams since 2000, improved win totals 86% of the time by roughly three games. The harder threshold is sustaining that into a championship: only the Chiefs, Eagles, Seahawks, Lions and Texans recent classes pulled it off, and most had a franchise QB or coaching anchor already in place.
Ask SkimNews
