Why the Cardinals face one of the more interesting dilemmas of the MLB trade deadline
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- The Cardinals fell to 53-53 with a -5 run differential after Monday's loss to the Cubs — their first time at .500 since April 13 (when they were 8-8) — going 9-15 in July and 13-21 since June 17.
- Dustin May is the top 'basic sell' target, boasting a 3.16 FIP that would rank 10th in MLB if he qualified, having added 1.5 mph to his fastball and developed four above-average pitches per Stuff+; he's owed the balance of a $12 million salary for 2026.
- JoJo Romero and Ryne Stanek are the other walk-year reliever candidates — Romero is on the IL with appendicitis but owns a 142 ERA+ over the last three seasons, while Stanek still throws one of the biggest fastballs in the game and carries a $6 million 2027 club option.
- Lars Nootbaar and Riley O'Brien headline the 'deeper sell' path — Nootbaar turns 29 in September with two full seasons of team control remaining, while O'Brien, the All-Star closer, isn't eligible for free agency until after 2030.
- Joshua Báez, a 23-year-old at Triple-A, leads the entire minors with 31 home runs in 90 games and is positioned to replace Nootbaar in the outfield if he's dealt.
- Chaim Bloom, in his first year as president of baseball operations, faces the decision after the offseason trades of Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and Brendon Donovan — a roster purge that wasn't supposed to leave St. Louis relevant in the standings.
Why it matters: Bloom's first deadline call will define the Cardinals' rebuild trajectory. Trading only rentals preserves the young core, while moving Nootbaar or O'Brien — both under years of team control — accelerates the farm-system overhaul and risks alienating a roster that entered the year as surprise contenders. With prospect Joshua Báez (31 HR at Triple-A) ready to step in, the Cardinals have a natural replacement path for any popular veteran they move.
