Coinbase: Wall Street Cuts Q2 Estimates on Trading Slump
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- Barclays, Benchmark, Clear Street, and Compass Point all cut their Coinbase Q2 estimates before Thursday's print, with Barclays' Benjamin Budish projecting roughly $152B in trading volume versus the Street's ~$178B expectation.
- Coinbase shares traded around 1.7% lower at $165 mid-Wednesday, with analysts broadly expecting adjusted EBITDA to land roughly 3% below consensus.
- Subscription and services revenue — covering USDC interest, staking, custody, and Coinbase One — is expected to act as a cushion against weaker transaction revenue, though Barclays and Compass Point flag softer crypto prices and slower stablecoin growth.
- Clear Street's Owen Lau projects approximately $160B in trading volume and $301M in adjusted EBITDA, while Benchmark's Mark Palmer cut his EBITDA forecast to $377M.
- Prediction markets have become one of Coinbase's fastest-growing businesses around sporting events, though Compass Point warns investors may overstate profitability because Coinbase shares economics with partner Kalshi.
- Derivatives — including the Deribit acquisition and international perpetual futures — are viewed as a long-term growth lever but contributed little to offset weaker spot volumes in Q2.
- The Clarity Act digital asset framework is the biggest swing factor: Benchmark sees recent ethics-provision movement as materially improving Senate passage odds, while Compass Point warns COIN's valuation could come under pressure if it stalls before the August recess.
Why it matters: After a year of heavy spending to diversify through stablecoins, derivatives, and tokenization, Q2 will test whether those recurring revenue streams can meaningfully offset Coinbase's dependence on retail trading volumes. With the Clarity Act's Senate path narrowing before August recess, regulatory timing — not the headline Q2 print — is likely to drive the stock's next move.
