The winner of Trump’s Iran war? Iran
Why it matters: The hypothetical conflict resulted in the destruction of US military bases and a plummet in US and Israeli international standing.
- US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on the 39th day of the Israeli-US war on Iran, relying on Pakistani mediators and an Iranian peace plan.
- Iran is deemed the victor, not by knockout, but by enduring the conflict and replacing assassinated centrist leaders with hardliners, effectively an internal coup orchestrated by its adversaries.
- Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated, but the Assembly of Experts swiftly elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor, demonstrating the resilience of the clerical government.
- The US and Israel committed significant war crimes, including the assassinations of Iranian defense minister and national security council secretary, which paradoxically garnered international sympathy for Iran.
- Iran inflicted an estimated billion dollars in damage on 13 US military bases in the Middle East using cheap drones, exposing host countries to greater danger and raising questions about the future of US military presence.
- Israel emerged from the war as a pariah state, with its military censorship obscuring the full extent of damage from Iranian strikes on targets like the Haifa refinery and research institutes.
- Iraqi Shiites supported Iran in the war, raising questions about the continued presence of US personnel in Iraq.
In a hypothetical 2026 conflict, the US-Israeli war on Iran concludes with a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, leaving Iran standing despite significant internal leadership changes and widespread destruction to US military bases in the Middle East. While the US and Israel failed to decapitate the Iranian government, their actions inadvertently strengthened hardline factions within Iran and severely damaged their own international standing, with Israel becoming a pariah state.
