Trump Jr.-funded Polymarket helps gov't insiders cash out on war
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- Anti-Corruption Data Collective found 152 "Orca" wallets on Polymarket won $8 million collectively with a 97.2% success rate, with bets on inside military info including the June 2025 attacks on Iran, according to Reuters
- Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to Polymarket, which his venture firm 1789 Capital invested in soon after founding, and he sits on the board of drone parts startup Unusual Machines
- Eric Trump holds defense-industry stakes including Powerus, which has received two Air Force contracts for interceptor drones this year, and Israeli drone firm Xtend, a DoD contractor whose drones have been used in the Iran war
- Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly made more than $400,000 on Polymarket betting on the January 3 U.S. operation that removed Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro; he has pleaded not guilty
- Polymarket users repeatedly wagered crude oil prices would drop just before Trump announced breakthroughs in Iran talks or airstrike halts — moves that would themselves crash oil prices, suggesting insider timing
- ACDC co-founder David Szakonyi warned Reuters that unusual betting activity is openly visible online and it would be "naive to think foreign-intelligence agencies aren't monitoring these markets"
- The White House warned officials in March against using nonpublic government information for wagers; the Senate has banned the practice for its members and Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) is pushing a House ban, calling the status quo "indefensible"
Why it matters: The ACDC report puts a $8 million figure and 97.2% win rate on suspected insider trading tied to active U.S. military operations — and the platform at the center has a direct advisory and financial tie to the president's son, whose family also profits from defense contracts flowing from the same wars being bet on. With one alleged insider already charged and congressional momentum building for a House ban, the national security question isn't theoretical: foreign adversaries could be reading the same blockchain ledger ACDC analyzed.
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