MLB trade dominoes: Predicting where the 10 biggest names on the market will land
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Tarik Skubal is predicted to be traded from the Detroit Tigers to the Atlanta Braves, with the two-time Cy Young winner heading to free agency after this season making him the deadline's "fulcrum" difference-maker who could swing the playoff race itself.
- Reid Detmers is forecast to go from the Angels to the Dodgers if they miss out on Skubal, with Detmers under team control for two more years and holding batters to a .214 average and .276 OBP despite a 3-7 record and 4.03 ERA.
- Freddy Peralta is projected to return to the Brewers from the Mets, where he previously went 17-6 with a 2.70 ERA in 2025, even though his current 4.99 ERA and tearful postgame Sunday had him telling reporters he "let down" the organization.
- Kevin Gausman is predicted to be dealt from the Blue Jays to the Phillies, with the durable right-hander heading to a sixth straight 30-start season and having posted a 2.93 ERA across 30 postseason innings last October.
- Luis Arraez is forecast to be sent from the Giants to the Rays, with the free-agent-to-be hitting .328 with a .364 OBP that would slot at the top of a Tampa Bay lineup now overly dependent on Caminero, Diaz, and Aranda.
- The article's own track record undercuts the domino premise: the top available player went untraded in each of the last three deadlines — Shohei Ohtani stayed with the Angels in 2023, Garrett Crochet was held by the White Sox in 2024, and Joe Ryan stayed with the Twins last year until the offseason.
Why it matters: The Tigers face "one of the most difficult deadline decisions in years" because Skubal's free-agency clock maximizes trade return value while their playoff hopes argue for keeping him — and the article's own record shows the top available player went untraded in each of the last three deadlines. That 0-for-3 historical pattern means an entire prediction built on dominoes rests on the one move history contradicts. If Skubal does move, pairing him with Chris Sale would give Atlanta a "lethal" October rotation no contender could match.
